That’s what it appears to be, with bits of finger movement in there, as Eric has mentioned on occasion. There is probably less finger movement in there than has been popularly attributed to him, but there is certainly some, depending on the phrase or perhaps the strings he is playing on. @Tom_Gilroy has looked at this a bit and may have further thoughts.
Eric doesn’t usually play with short sleeves so it’s harder to say how much forearm is involved, but it doesn’t really look like a forearm movement.
I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again: when in doubt, look at the path the pick is traveling and ask what joints can create that movement. If the pick travels parallel to the pickups, the forearm can’t do that - not by itself anyway.