I honestly think we are on the edge of being overtaken by AI

Off-Topic
#23

Same with programming.

In tech, new tools open up new use cases. People thought calculators and computers would be the end of mathematicians and scientists. In fact they opened up those fields to even more people, and allowed them to solve even harder and more interesting problems, while the technology does the drudge work. You don’t have to be a savant to be a good mathematician anymore.

AI doesn’t have emotions (yet), so it doesn’t want anything. Wanting is a crucial component of innovation. Without wanting, there are no problems to solve. Once AI does have emotions, I don’t imagine their desires will resemble our own. Humans will always have problems to solve, and people willing to do the work of solving them.

I’d worry about running out of resources before running out of problems for humans to solve. If you are willing to adapt your skills and use the available tools, there will be work to do.

1 Like
#24

Right, but the above is good enough for many formerly paying customers of the graphic arts, so many jobs will be lost. Also the generated art will be better every year, closing the gap.

I have concerns that most people will not have paid work as computers will work for nearly free and undercut them on the job market.

I am really depressed about AI in general because it will create huge problems in society via unemployment and I don’t trust the government to be able to come up with an elegant solution; they could not even solve a comparative simple problem like Covid-19.

Massive unemployment will start when someone figures out AGI (artificial general intelligence), and then lots of AGIs will eventually enable artificial super-intelligence (ASI), and that could be the end of the world depending on what it does.

#25

So?

Job requirements change all the time. Emergent technologies change what’s needed as does consumer preference.

Also if that picture is what you think constitutes ‘graphic design’ in any usable form, we are definitely not talking about the same thing. That image is, at best, a party trick…and not a very good one.

Completely different universe.

#26

I expect to see a reduction of jobs in graphic design. Surely you agree?

1 Like
#27

If you thought the era of bland gradient filled Photoshop album covers was terrible, the bland tired database mined AI album covers is coming and upon us. Because when it’s passable and costs next to nothing it’s gonna be everywhere.

1 Like
#28

No. Because we are not talking about the same thing at all.

The people using AI to create the image you posted don’t hire graphic designers now. So…no loss there.

When I’ve been involved with a graphic designer, that is, someone absolutely worth paying, no AI prompt was ever going to produce what was needed. The prompt would have been as long as the US Tax Code. Translated into 40 languages and iterated dozens of times.

1 Like
#29

I have anxiety about upcoming AI-driven unemployment, it will be brutal.

#30

If you stand still in just about any profession, your job is at risk. Period.

Will AI affect the job market? Absolutely. However…

We’re not going to see massive unemployment with people unable to find jobs. I deal with business owners, executives and works in a ridiculous variety of industries. From the local dentist to a regional bank to a nationally recognized retailer.

Every last one have good jobs open they have trouble filling. I hear it all the time.

With less than 30 seconds of effort searching : job loss due to AI, revealed this…

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590051X23000308

“As a result, the “displacement effect” is validated for artificial intelligence. Hence, AI has the potential to revolutionize the workforce by creating new job roles, automating routine tasks, and increasing productivity. AI-enabled technologies can free employees to focus on more complex and creative work requiring human skills such as critical thinking, problem-solving, and innovation. This can lead to a more fulfilling work experience and increased job satisfaction. Furthermore, AI can help businesses make better decisions by providing data-driven business model insights and analytics, resulting in increased profitability and growth and it can lead to the creation of new job roles and the expansion of existing ones, resulting in job creation. Ultimately, the positive impact of AI on employment is creating a more efficient, productive, and fulfilling work environment with new jobs.”

#31

Consider Uber and taxi drivers. They will eventually be replaced by self-driving cars. What is the new job for them, if any? Truckers will have the same problem. They will all become unemployed.

What is the new job for translators or editors?

The way to look at this is a supply of nearly free automated workers are coming, and expensive humans will only be hired where necessary.

#32

That’s like asking what job will buggy whip makers get. Or horse saddle makers, or analog telephone technicians or vacuum tube manufacturers or…

This has happened time and time again throughout history.

Just because the job of today disappears does not mean it won’t be replaced with something else humans need to do.

2 Likes
#33

Before trucks and taxis existed, there were no truck drivers or taxi drivers. Technology makes new industries possible, opening up new jobs and making other jobs obsolete.

What happened to all the scribes after the printing press was invented? The options are adapt or opt-out of the workforce, and they always have been. This is not a new problem, and not dependent on AI in particular.

2 Likes
#34

Absolutely right. But until new industries arrive, I presume many jobs will be lost. And the upcoming new industries will presumably be highly automated from the start, resulting in few actual jobs for humans. And if these new jobs require a high IQ, what is the rest of the population to do?

#35

The new industries develop alongside the declining ones. That’s how it always works. There is no ‘(Click) This industry is dead. Now what?’

History has proven that time and time again in so many different ways.

Automation in manufacturing didn’t leave people starving on the street. Other industries developed and people adapted over time. It’s one of the few things humans are actually good and resilient at.

#36

Remember when, baxk in the 1800s and 1900s, we used to look at technological change and automation as a way of increasing leisure time in the future? We also today have shorter work days than we did 100 years ago.

I think the composition of the workforce is probably going to change, and that will be disruptive, but that will also push human workers into more higher-value-add jobs, and ultimately that may be a good thing.

Personally though I think fears are overblown, at least in the near term. We had computers in the 60s, and PCs in the 80s, and it really wasn’t until the second half of the 90s that the computer revolution really changed how people work. Generative AI is only a couple years old. Even if you assume some sort of Moore’s Law timeline here I’d say we’ve got at least another ten years before we get the same sort of fundamental rethink to how an office works that we saw when computer productivity tools really went mainstream.

1 Like
#37

Yeah! Previously, we went from paper to electronic devices. Now, it will be from one electronic device to another, hence the transition should be faster.

One thing that will be new is that everybody will be talking to their devices and likely not typing, so I wonder what the office will sound like? On the other hand, perhaps everybody will be working remotely and there won’t be an office.

#38

I doubt that, commercial real estate interests and studies on productivity pretty much ended that being a widespread thing. Unless we get to the level of panopticon where everyone is chipped.

#39

San Francisco is in what many consider to be a death spiral, empty office buildings might be “the future”:

#40

That city was dying long before COVID and remote work and has more to do with horrible management by the local government and complete refusal to maintain any rule of law. When your city has a “human feces” map it’s no longer civilization.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=b6fab720912642b6aedafdb02a76d2a4

#41

When there were throngs of regular people walking around, a lot of problems were masked by the crowds. During Covid, however, a lot of the underbelly of the city became clearly exposed—particularly due to SF’s heavy handed response—and then worldwide shock/mockery was inevitable, resulting in fewer tourists and conventions.

I think that the city intentionally developed the problems that you cite, as billions of dollars per year are consumed by nonprofits providing services; they can’t solve the problem as then they can’t get paid…

#42
1 Like